2012: Android to be no. 2 in the OS league, say Gartner

In January, the analysts Gartner were already predicting Android would be no. 2 in the OS league come 2012. Now they are even more optimistic as to Android's standing. For Microsoft however, the outlook is much less certain.

The future looks very Android. With strong support from major mobile manufacturers (HTC, Samsung, LG, Motorola and so on), the Google OS will continue to grow over the years to come. So much so that in two years, Android will be number two in the world OS league, with a market share of 17.7%.
This is in any case what the analysts Gartner are predicting. No. 1 spot should still go to Symbian, while BlackBerry, pushed down from second place by Android, will drop to no. 3 with 17.5% of the market.

Symbian / Android, on an equal footing

Looking a little further to 2014, Gartner sees the difference between Android and Symbian being even smaller, with the two systems claiming the lion's share of the market with 29.6% and 30.2% respectively.

Gartner sees the RIM OS falling to 11.7% of market share, with Windows Phone dropping from 4.7% in 2010 to 3.9% in 2014. Lastly, iOS, reserved for just a few Apple phones, is expected by Gartner to hold its line with pretty much a stable 15% from 2010 through 2014. IDC however sees the iOS market share dropping to just over 10% in four years time.

While there's no doubt that the Google OS will continue to power many smartphones in the years to come, two factors remain unknown. The first concerns Nokia's ability to reverse its decline (down 7% in 2010). The arrival of the new group chief executive, Stephen Elop, will perhaps give a new dose of much-needed creativity to the Finish company, which, since the advent of touch phones and app stores, has been struggling to make an impact in Western markets. The other question concerns Microsoft, who will be making a big push this year to get back on track in the profitable smartphone sector with their new OS, Windows Phone 7. According to Gartner's predictions, the Microsft project will fail. The ambition and confidence behind Microsoft's push, as seen at the press conference held in Paris last week, will apparently have no impact.

Roberta Cozza, analyst with Gartner, says: "We believe that market share in the OS space will consolidate around a few key OS providers that have the most support from CSPs and developers and strong brand awareness with consumer and enterprise customers"